Real Work Force – 07/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for July 2013 this week showing a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at ZeroHedge said, “So much for the trends of beats: July non-farm payrolls +162K missing expectations of 185K; June was revised lower to 188K and the unemployment rate dips from 7.5% to 7.4%. The rate dropped because the civilian labor force declined from 155,835 to 155,798 or 37K, driven by an increase of people not in labor force to 89,957 – just shy of the all time high. This also means that the labor force participation rate once again ticked down to 63.4% from 63.5%.”

FedGov and ZeroHedge calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Once again, that number reversed its trend:

.RWF - 20130731 - Real Work Force - 01 .

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

.Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

RWF - 20130731 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130731 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130731 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

Real Work Force – 03/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for March 2013 this week showing a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at ZeroHedge calculated that the Real Unemployment Rate is now 11.6% instead of the FedGov’s drop from 7.7% to 7.6%.  The actual Labor Force declined by 496,000 and those not in the Labor Force increased by 660,000.

FedGov and ZeroHedge calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force - 01

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

.Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130331 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130331 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

Employment v Unemployment – December 2012

The Unemployment Rate is out again today with no change at 7.8% (apparently November 2012 was revised up to 7.8%), but there was an actual uptick in the labor force (155,319,000 up to 155,511,000).  The Labor Force Participation Rate remained unchanged at an anemic 63.6% (down from 65.7% at the start of Obama’s 1st term).

We can be heartened at the fact that another major exit from the work force did not occur.

Employment v Unemployment 20121231 - 01

.

The graph continues to look ugly:

Employment v Unemployment – November 2012

With another 350,000 leaving the work force, the useless figure called the unemployment rate ticked down again in November 2012 to 7.7%.  Previous months, however, were also revised downward, and we can expect the same for the current month.  Problems?

For instance, labor force participation fell sharply. Indeed, the sole reason for a decline in the unemployment rate was a drop of 350,000 in the number of people in the labor force.

So, why even pay attention to the Unemployment Rate.  There is only one graph that really matters and shows a much more true picture of the Employment situation in the U.S. — The Labor Force Participation Rate:

Compliments of the Obama Stimulus, Auto Bailout, Recovery Summer, TARP, Cash For Clunkers, EPA, High Gas Prices and every other constraint the Obama Administration has put on our economy, the Labor Force Participation rate has fallen off the cliff and continues to decline:

Employment v Unemployment 20121130 - 01

Obama’s Labor Force Participation Rate is the lowest since Jimmy Carter’s 63% rates — another complete failure as a jobs president.

Yes, I would gladly go back to the Clinton Era 67% Employment Rates, 18% of GDP Spending Rates, and his reduction to 15% in the Capital Gains Tax Rate… …and if we didn’t increase to Clinton’s 39% Income Tax Rate, his figures would be even better!